Let’s get this straight: I’m not market, investing or money expert. I don’t have an MBA, haven’t taken any financial investing classes, hell, I don’t even have a college degree. In fact, it could be said that in the world of money and finance, I’m a nobody. Many would say I know nothing. Others would simply brush me off as a pointless pawn in the expensive game of real life chess.
I say this because, as much as I’m a nobody in their world, I’ve been right more than most of the ‘experts’ since 2009 began. But I’m not bragging, just merely making a point, a point that point can be summed up in an old saying: They don’t know shit from Shinola.
Bear, bear, bear. That’s all they were speaking, these ‘experts’. Bear this, bear that, bear to the east, bear to the west. The market crashed, 8000 down to 7500, down to 7000 and at that point, everyone on Wall Sreet was shitting bricks. Big bricks.
And then, the Dow hit the 6600 mark and we were on our way to the Apocalypse. Apparently, the sky was falling and the world was about to end. So, the market crashed even worse after that, right?
WRONG!!!
After that horrendous day when the Dow dropped somewhere in the 6600 range, the market decided it had had enough. The next day, with the fiscal results of Citigroup changing the scope of how investors viewed thing, the market shot up and then up again and again and again. 6 straight weeks of gains not to mention an enormous lift in investor confidence.
But these ‘experts’ were telling people to take their money OUT OF THE MARKET. PUT IT IN CASH, they’d say. PUT IT IN GOLD, they’d say. BONDS, CDS, TIPS, ANYTHING SAFE. But they failed horribly to advise investors to put their money BACK INTO THE MARKET before the huge rally, failing to allow investors to reap in HUGE rewards.
Funny, when the Dow dropped so low the ‘experts’ were telling everyone to stay away from the likes of Apple (had dropped below $85/share), General Electric ($6), Chesapeake Energy ($13) and IBM ($84). So, where are they now? Apple ($124), GE ($12), Chesapeake ($20) and IBM ($100). This is only 6 weeks later, by the way.
The problem with the market is simple: annual returns are BULLSHIT! There’s no such thing as averaging a 8%, 5%, 12% or whatever % return every year because these averages are based over a span of time covering 10-30 years. COME ON, YA’LL!!!
The truth behind it all is that some years, like last year, investors might lose 20-50% of their assets while other years, possibly even 2009, could get an investor a return of 30%. Since it fluctuates so often year to year, it averages out to numbers that seem much more rational. But there’s only one truth about the market:
IT’S IRRATIONAL
So, Mr. Nobody over here put his money into market when everyone, especially the ‘experts’ told me not to. I came out ahead. How much ahead doesn’t really matter as long as it’s enough for me to mention. Watch the market closely, not because you’re looking for bears or bulls but because you’re looking for the RIGHT TIME to put your money is. That’s what matters. There’s no bear or bull to me, just a right time.
